China’s Incoming Collapse Is Worse Than You Think current events world news 2022
We must be very straightforward with you today, because this is a very serious issue. The alarm bells are ringing louder and louder, and China is facing a mutiny. Yeah, a mutiny. Here’s what it looks like, But wait, A mutiny against China should not be possible. The whole world witnessed how Hong Kong protests failed to make a difference, but this is different. It’s a revolt against mortgage and it’s bringing the Chinese economy to its knees. Now, if you’ve been paying attention, the mortgage crisis is not to be taken lightly, and for China it’s much more than that. GDP growth has stalled to its lowest pace in four decades. It stands at just 0.4%, a world away from the government’s expectations of 5.5% for 2022, but to get the whole picture of how deep the rod runs, let’s address the debt, bomb. China’s total public debt now exceeds 300% of GDP, 60% higher than the average across other countries. This net to GDP ratio is growing at 11% per year. China’s GDP though, has grown far less than 11% annually during the past decade, so the debt is comfortably outpacing growth. Youth unemployment is at 20%, the highest in recorded history, and then there’s the war that has caused unprecedented supply chain headaches. China’s middle class consumers are already preparing for the economic winter as they rush to buy close to expired food at discounted rates. To top it all off, China is fighting an unwinnable fight against the pandemic. More on that later. But first, let’s address the problem that’s hastening China’s economic decline. The property bubble. The property sector has essentially been the driver of the Chinese economy for three decades. As of 2022, real estate makes up 30% of the world’s second largest economy. That’s double the size of America’s property sector and three times that of Europe. Ever since the 2008 recession, the Chinese stock market has remained stagnant, so real estate has been the preferred investment sector for most Chinese people. Right now, about 70% of household is tied up with real estate, but there’s a big structural problem there. Most of the money generated in the market comes from pre-sold homes that make up 90% of all property sales. So the buyer pays the mortgage on a development that is yet to be completed. The developer takes the money, puts it into new projects. The existing projects are completed with borrowed money. And it practically becomes a Ponzi scheme, where the asset does not exist. But what happens when the bank no longer provides the debt to cover construction. Developers are yet to deliver 40% of all the homes they sold between 2013 and 2020. Consumer confidence in the market is at an all time low. And home prices have fallen for a record 11 months in a row. Things came to a head last month when thousands of home buyers came together to boycott mortgage installments. The boycots have spread to at least 320 projects in 99 cities, making it perhaps the largest mortgage protest in China’s history.
This is, China’s Incoming Collapse Is Worse Than You Think.
In this video we discuss:
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